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China Sep Trade Stays Strong But Unlikely To Last |
| China's trade surplus in September jumped to another record high, as exports stayed surprisingly resilient despite growing concerns about global demand.
But economists cautioned the better-than-expected performance in China's trade is unlikely to last because the data may have been distorted by the Olympics, and Asian demand, a driver of export growth last month, will likely decline due to the global financial turmoil. Beijing is still likely to take measures to support growth despite September's data, they said. China's exports in September grew 21.5% from a year earlier to US$136.4 billion, government data showed Monday, accelerating from a 21.1% increase in August and above the median 19.0% forecast of eight economists polled earlier by Dow Jones Newswires. Imports in September rose 21.3% from a year earlier to US$107.1 billion, slower than August's 23.1% rise and slightly below economists' expectations for a 21.5% increase. The trade surplus hit a monthly record high of US$29.3 billion, exceeding August's record of US$28.7 billion. But for the January-September period, China's trade surplus contracted 2.6% from a year earlier to $180.9 billion, the General Administration of Customs said. "It should be mostly demand from Asia holding up," said Prakash Sakpal, an economist with ING Financial Markets, referring to the strong export figures for September. Sakpal said China's September's export value of $136.4 billion wasn't very different from $134.9 billion in August and $136.7 billion in July. But he cautioned that any resilience in Asian trade may not last as the global financial turmoil continues to take its toll on economies across the world. Many Asian companies send goods to be made at low cost in China before exporting the products to major consumer markets in the U.S. and Europe. September's data was also likely distorted by the Olympic Games held in the country in August, economists said. Export growth may have taken up the slack that occurred after the government ordered the closure of some factories surrounding Beijing to improve air quality for the Olympics, they said. Sakpal said China's third-quarter trade should make a net positive contribution to the country's gross domestic product in the July-September period. The trade surplus totaled over $81 billion in the third quarter, widening from around $73 billion in the third quarter of 2007. In contrast, China's trade surplus for each of the first and second quarters of this year contracted on a year-on-year basis. China is due to disclose its third quarter GDP figures Oct. 21, and many economists expect economic growth to have slowed from the second-quarter's 10.1% gain from a year earlier. According to the customs statement, China's export growth to the U.S. for the nine months ended September slowed to 11.2%, off by 4.6 percentage points from a year earlier. Trade with India rose sharply, with bilateral trade up 54.9% in the period. |
| last update:2008-10-24 1:03:04 |



